Four of the MVP favorites in the NBA this season are Paul George, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Blake Griffin. One simple way to test a player's offensive ability is to measure their points per game:
1. Kevin Durant: 31.5 PPG
2. LeBron James: 26.8 PPG
3. Blake Griffin: 24.4 PPG
4. Paul George: 22.5 PPG
But this statistic will not factor in how often a player shoots the ball. If a player shoots 30 shots per game, it is a lot easier to score 30 points. In this case, a player would only have to make 50% of their baskets to score 30 points just off of two-point field goals, not even taking into account 3-pointers or free throws.
1. LeBron James: 57.4% FG
2. Blake Griffin: 54.0% FG
3. Kevin Durant: 51.0% FG
4. Paul George: 43.9% FG
Now, these statistics clearly only factor in offense. It is difficult to factor in defense with statistics, as the only concrete statistics in this category are blocks and steals. In my opinion, the best stat would be a measure of the field goal percentage of the opposing player whom a player is covering. Unfortunately, this statistic is unavailable on ESPN.com, but it is generally agreed that this is the order of these four players from best defender to worst defender.
1. Paul George
2. LeBron James
3. Kevin Durant
4. Blake Griffin
Since all these players excel in all statistics, it is difficult to use statistics to separate one from another. George is the best defender, but the worst scorer of the four. Most analysts agree that LeBron James and Kevin Durant are the only players with a shot at winning MVP, but even though Durant holds a clear edge in points per game, James' edge in field goal percentage is far more of a deciding factor, because it shows that he knows what is best for his team in every situation and only shoots high-percentage shots. James also has an advantage when it comes to intangibles, because he has proven that he has the talent and leadership to win in the playoffs. Therefore, despite Durant's astronomical scoring numbers that cannot be overlooked, I think James should win his 5th MVP in 6 years.
This is really interesting to see who should become MVP. You do have a good arguement on why James should win the award in terms of stats. However, you are right that stats barely determine the whole thing. I personally think Kevin Durant should get it, but that may be cause I am a total Lebron hater :D.
ReplyDeleteIt amazes me to see how you always manage to connect sports to math Joe. I see why you would say James should be the MVP and I agree. The most valued player should be someone who knows what is best for his team and how to bring out their best assets in a game! And from your description, it sounds like James deserves it!
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